Showing posts with label Jimmie Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jimmie Johnson. Show all posts

Friday, May 25, 2012

The fix is not in for Dale Jr. to win ... and picks

One of the funniest things to read about in various NASCAR articles, or the comments that follow them, is that NASCAR is trying to fix races so Dale Earnhardt Jr. can get a win.Yes, there's probably a good amount of truth to it that NASCAR's leaders would love to see their most popular driver win for the first time in nearly four years in the Coca-Cola 600 Sunday at Charlotte (6 p.m., FOX).
And yes, there is reason for optimism for Junior fans as he led all 40 laps of the Sprint Showdown (although admittedly against a weak field) and 19 of 20 laps to win the fourth segment of the All-Star race. And yes,  Junior's crew chief Steve Letarte is using a bit of common sense by bringing back the all-star car for the 400-lap event at the 1.5-mile track.
But even with all of this, the fact remains Junior has not won a race since June 15, 2008. That's a total of 140 Sprint Cup points races without a win, yes, for those of you still snoring at home. Obviously, that's a long time for a driver of an elite team to go without a win. There are Junior fans who have started families and have yet  to share the joy of victory with their children.
And that's the point.
While all of this makes for good speculation for the Junior haters out there, I have to break the bad news to you.  If NASCAR could actually put the fix in for Junior to win a points race, he wouldn't be winless in his last 140 tries. I'm on neutral ground when it comes to Junior. Not my favorite. Don't hate him either. That's probably rare territory - almost as a rare as seeing him in Victory Lane.
So the question remains, will we see him there sometime late Sunday night?
Here are my picks for this week:
 Jimmie Johnson - He's won this race six times. It's at Charlotte. He could drive a scooter around the place and probably figure out a way to win.
Jeff Gordon - He's been the king of bad luck this season. It's hard to believe he is 24th in the points standings. But Charlotte has been good to him, too. He won his first race here and has five victories in this race. In spite of the bad luck, just a feeling this could be a real good day for him.
Kasey Kahne - Yes, I k now, another Hendrick car, and it's still not Junior. But Kahne has won this race three times and has been eighth or better in the last five races.
Matt Kenseth - He was strong in the All-Star race and has won the 600-miler once, too. He's got the necessary patience needed to make it to the end.
Mark Martin - All right, I know, he's bit of a sentimental pick here, but he's in better shape than most 20-somethings out there, so forget about his age. He's also won this race four times with an astounding 18 top-five finishes. And the No. 55 car he is has been strong all year.
Should, woulda, coulda - OK Junior fans. I couldn't pull the trigger on him winning this one. Hendrick cars at great at Charlotte, but I can't pick all four of them, so no, not this week.

ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Even though they don't count in the points standings, or on my record, Here's a look at how last week's picks fared in the All-Star race.
Jimmie Johnson:  1st. It's Charlotte, No brainer.
Brad Keselowski: 2nd. No shame in being No. 2 behind No. 48.
Kyle Busch: 4th. Was strong all night, but couldn't mount challenge in final 10 laps.

  Here's a look at my results after 11 races and 55 picks.
 5 wins
19 top fives
23 top 10s
Grade for the week: A. OK, that's four winners in a row now and also a 1-2-4 finish. Not much room for improvement..
One Last Thing:  A NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race/Coca-Cola 600 sweep has occurred seven times. Johnson has a chance to be the first to accomplish the feat twice. The drivers who have accomplished and the years they did it were Darrell Waltrip (1985), Davey Allison (’91), Dale Earnhardt (’93), Jeff Gordon (’97), Jimmie Johnson (2003), Kasey Kahne (’08), Kurt Busch (’10).
 







Thursday, May 10, 2012

Will Danica be a Darlington darling? ... and picks

They call Darlington the Lady in Black, but for at least some NASCAR fans, Saturday's 7 p.m. race on FOX will be about the lady in green. Yes, Danica Patrick will make her first appearance in the Sprint Cup series since the season-opening Daytona 500. This much we know because the No. 10 car owned by Tommy Baldwin Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing has been reserved for Patrick and is inside the top 35 in owners points.
For sure  there are some Danica haters out there. She's become popular just as much for her appearance as for her driving skill. But as women face an uphill battle to break into a sport that is predominantly male, can she really be blamed for using all of her assets to bring in much needed sponsorship dollars?
Unfortunately, it's hard to blame her for that.
 I say unfortunate because there are some talented male drivers out there who are having sponsorship issues. Can somebody tell me why a young handsome, well-spoken driver and 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne can't find a full-time sponsor? Or even former Sprint Cup champion Matt Kenseth, this year's Daytona 500 winner and a title contender again, has taken nearly one third of this season to find a regular full-time sponsor?
So, no, don't blame Danica for doing what she has to do. Ultimately, what she does on the track will matter - at least that's what we think. Whether that will be true or not remains to be seen.
As for how she will do Saturday night, Danica fans shouldn't come in with any big expectations. If she finishes inside the top 20, that would be a good accomplishment. If she finishes in the top 10, that wold be a big deal. Darlington is not kind to newcomers, so expect a big learning curve here.
As for the regular picks this week, here's a look at my top five:
Greg Biffle: The current points leader has two wins and five top 10s, so he's gotta be picked here.
Jimmie Johnson: Also two wins and he has yet to win this season, so he's really due for an appearance in Victory Lane.
Denny Hamlin: He doesn't have a ton of experience at Darlington with just six races, but he does have one win and an average finish of 6.5. And he normally drives a black car, so hey, the Lady in Black must like him.
Tony Stewart: This is one of two Sprint Cup tracks Stewart has not won on yet, so he'll be fired up to contend. He does have an average finish of 12.3 and three top fives at Darlington.
Kasey Kahne: He's had a string of good finishes now, including last week's fourth at Talladega. He does have the seventh-best driver rating and started on the pole last year, which shows he knows how to get around the 1.25-mile oval.
Coulda,shoulda, woulda: The numbers are jumping right out of the computer screen on this one, but couldn't pull the trigger here. Jeff Gordon has seven wins at Darlington and his team, Hendrick Racing, has 13 total victories. And the Hendrick team is still looking for that elusive 200th career Sprint Cup win. But just too much bad luck for the No. 24 this year to pick him this time.



ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a look at how last week's picks fared at Talladega.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 9th. So much for my lock stock guaranteed absolutely without question can't miss winning prediction. The winless streak is now at 139 for those of you snoring at home.
Brad Keselowski: - 1st. OK, so I didn't give you a guarantee here, but that's two winners in a row I've given you.
Kevin Harvick - 25th. He was a contender again until getting caught up in a late accident.
Jimmie Johnson - 35th. He had a grenade engine, nothing more restricting than that at a plate track.
Juan Pablo Montoya - 32nd. Well, he didn't run into the jet dryer. Doesn't that count as a win?
Here's a look at my results after 10 races and 50 picks.
 4 wins
12 top fives
 8 top 10s
Grade for the week: B. We did get another winner this week as at least one of the Penske cars continued to run strong on a plate track. Engine woes and accidents put a damper on the rest of the day.
One Last Thing: Carl Edwards finished 31st last week at Talladega and dropped to 11th in the points standings. Edwards was the runner-up in for the championship last year and is trying to break a recent stretch of poor performances the following season by the previous year's runnerup. Denny Hamlin finished ninth last year, Mark Martin was 13th in 2010, and Edwards was 11th in 2009.


Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Night time is right time in Texas ... and picks

The NASCAR Sprint Cup series moves into Texas for its first scheduled night race of the season (Daytona eventually became a night race) at 7:30 Saturday on FOX. There's no doubt that racing at night affects the surface and how the cars handle. Texas is a fast track, so the teams able to make adjustments depending on the temperature of track will likely find success.
There's no doubt that the Roushkateers have found their share of success at Texas. Roush cars have won eight times in the Lone Star State, including the last night race there last spring. So there will likely be a theme in the picks this week, but there are also a few who could interrupt the Roush/Ford party, too.
So, here we go:
Matt Kenseth - Yes, he won the last night race here last year and has been generally strong this spring. He also won under the lights on the fast track at Daytona, so it's hard not to pick him here where he has an average finish of 8.7.
Greg Biffle - He's hanging on to the points lead, six ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. He needs a strong showing at Texas and it's quite possible for him. He has one win there and six top fives. But his average finish is 17.2, so it's kind of an all or nothing deal for him as he also has four DNFs.
Tony Stewart - He won the fall race at Texas and has two wins this season. He, along with a few others, are just 12 points out of the series points lead. It's difficult not to pick him these days.
Denny Hamlin - He's got two wins at Texas and five top fives in his 13 starts there. And with Darian Grubb as he crew chief, this is a team that will be able to make key in-race adjustments.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - He's got to get a win sometime and Texas has been good to him. He has one win in 19 starts and has been competitive this season. He actually may be ready to break through and end that 135-race winless streak.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda - Carl Edwards. He's had plenty of success at Texas, with three wins and a runnerup finish to Stewart in the fall race last year. And while this season has not been a disaster (see Kasey Kahne as exhibit A for that), he still has not led a lap, which is a bit alarming for someone who's accustomed to running up front. So, I couldn't pull the trigger on Edwards wearing the six-shooters in Victory Lane this week.

ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a review of the picks from two weeks ago at Martinsville and how they finished.
Tony Stewart - 7th. Never was a serious contender to win and late wreck by others helped his finish.
Denny Hamlin - 6th. He was in the mix for a while, but didn't have as fast of car as Jimmie Johnson or Jeff Gordon.
Jimmie Johnson - 12th. He very well could have won the race as he was battling Gordon in the final laps before the big wreck took him out of the picture. Not as disastrous of a finish as it could have been for him.
Kevin Harvick - 19th. He was somewhat strong early, leading 21 laps, but clearly didn't make the adjustments to stay with the frontrunners.
Brian Vickers - 18th. He had looked so good on the concrete at Bristol, finishing fifth, but it didn't translate into a contending kind of day on the mixed surface at Martinsville.
Here's a look at my stats after six races and 30 picks.

1 win
7 top fives
6 top 10s

Grade for the week: B minus. Had it not been for the late yellow, Johnson would have won or finished second. Harvick was the big disappointment here.

One Last Thing: When looking the numbers after six races this season, there's one driver's that do not make sense. Jeff Gordon is leading the Sprint Cup Series with 337 laps led, and in percentage of laps led at 17.5. He also has the most quality passes (under green in the top 15) at 82.5 percent. However because of a string of bad luck, he is without a victory and sits 21st in the point standings. However, Gordon led 329 of those laps at Martinsville last week. So, while the numbers don't lie, they don't always tell the whole truth either.
Until next time

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Lawyers, puns and money ... and picks

It's been a crazy week off the track in NASCAR. Jimmie Johnson, with the help of Rick Hendrick's lawyers, gained 25 points and moved up to 11th without winning a race. Bruton Smith says he's going to tear up Bristol and make it like the old configuration. He's apparently not making enough money, noting the lack of fans Sunday at one of the NASCAR's most popular tracks. They want the old track back. Of course, they wouldn't mind having the old ticket prices and the old gas prices back too. Those are certainly factors in the fans staying away as well.
One old occurrence that did take place Sunday afternoon was the No. 2 showing up in Victory Lane at Bristol. Brad Keselowski, who also won at Bristol last year, has taken over the Penske No. 2 car. So that win along with the successes of previous No. 2 drivers Kurt Busch and Rusty Wallace at Bristol means I'm picking Keselowski to win the fall race there, no matter what the track configuration might be.
As for this week, here's a look at the picks for the 3 p.m. Sunday race on FOX at the two-mile track in California

Jimmie Johnson - Five-timer has won five times at California. The team should be on a high after winning its appeal and it's Johnson's home track. Can't not pick him here.
Matt Kenseth - He's got three wins here and has run well all season. It would be surprising if he doesn't battle for the lead.
Greg Biffle - Well, I suppose you have to give the points leader some respect sometime. He's got one win at California and four top fives.
Tony Stewart - He's got one win and five top fives and Hendrick information to help him, too.
Kevin Harvick - No more sentimental picks at the end now. I need a win and Harvick won this race last year. So why not two in a row?

Coulda, woulda, shoulda - Jeff Gordon. He's got three wins here and has had a car capable of winning in these early races. But he seems to be a bit snakebit this year, so couldn't put his name on my top five.

ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a review of last week's picks at Bristol and how they finished.
Kyle Busch - 32nd. An early wreck ended any chance he had of winning. He still got back out and ran 423 laps and finished 31st.
Matt Kenseth - 2nd. Just as easily could have won. He pushed Keselowski late in the race, but couldn't make the winning pass, quick re-start or not.
Kevin Harvick - 11th. He also got caught in an accident, but managed to get on the lead lap and hang in there and make what could have been a disaster into a pretty decent day.
Jimmie Johnson - 9th. He didn't lead any laps, but did hang around the top 10 all day.
Kasey Kahne - 37th. The team is good, I think the driver is good and the car is good. So far though, the luck is all bad.

Here's a look at my stats after four races and 20 picks.

O wins
5 top fives
3 top 10s

Grade for this week: B minus (a Kenseth win would have given me a boost

That zero there is still killing me.

One Last Thing: And speaking of zeros, last year's points runnerup Carl Edwards has yet to lead a lap this season. On the flip side, Brian Vickers ran his first race of the season Sunday at Bristol in the No. 55 Toyota. He led 125 laps, the third most this season in the Sprint Cup Series.
Until next time

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Goodbye cookie cutter, hello Bristol

Quite appropriately Las Vegas supplied us with some false excitement last Sunday as several restarts were needed in the race's final 50 plus laps to provide us with some close battles for the lead. But really, it was just a matter of who could get out front. That's because at those cookie-cutter type 1.5 mile tracks, it's all about getting clean air. Whoever gets ahead of the pack is going to win. It's pretty simple. Other than the first lap or two after a restart, the leader in each of those scenarios pulled away. That's why we saw some guys go crazy on the restarts, they knew that was their only chance.
Now we're on to a real race track at Bristol. It's just a half-mile and is one of NASCAR's great venues. There is no such thing as clean air, especially after the first 10 or 15 laps when the leader starts lapping the slower cars, or gently or not so gently bumping them out of the way. The reactions to those bumps is one of the things that makes Bristol great. What's the over-under on the amount of helmets thrown? Three seems like the right number here for a lot of reasons. A driver has to have the right amount of aggressiveness and patience to win at Bristol.
So with that in mind, here's a rundown of picks for this week.

Kyle Busch - Yes, that Kyle Busch. Somehow he's managed to keep his cool enough to get five wins here. So, hard to ignore that.
Jimmie Johnson - If there was ever a team on a mission to get into the top 10 in points it's the No. 48. Just one win here for five-timer, but with Johnson taking the lead, this team is focused.
Matt Kenseth - He's got two wins here and has run over 5,700 laps in the top 15 at Bristol, quite remarkable. He's got that right mix of patience and aggressiveness to get back to Victory Lane again.
Kevin Harvick - Just one win here, but he's never been afraid to use his bumper to get the slower guys out of the at the short tracks.
Kasey Kahne - Yes, a bit of reach here. At some point he's got to break through and these short tracks are just like the ones he learned to race on in the Midwest.
Shoulda, woulda coulda, but didn't - Kurt Busch, yes that Kurt Busch, has five wins here. But he's not on a big-time team any longer with the one-car Phoenix Racing. His patience will be tested more than ever now.

ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a review of last week's picks at Las Vegas and how they finished.
Matt Kenseth - 22nd. Contended for the lead all day, only to get caught in a late-race scuffle and get pushed up against the wall.
Carl Edwards - 5th. He was not in contention all day and never led a lap, but hung around and rallied late.
Kyle Busch - 23rd. He started in the back in a backup car looked to be marching to the front. After hanging around 10th and 11th most of the day, he couldn't muster the kind of finish he would have liked in his hometown.
Jimmie Johnson - 2nd. The No. 48 team could have very well won the race, but just couldn't get around Tony Stewart in those final restarts.
Mark Martin - 18th. I went sentimental here, but it wasn't meant to be. He didn't lead a lap.

Here's a look at my stats after three races and 15 picks.

O wins
4 top fives
2 top 10s

Grade for this week: C plus (a good Kenseth finish away from emerging from mediocrity)

That zero there is killing me.
Until next time

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Watching the wheels in Vegas

The Sprint Cup series heads to the city of Lost Wages (OK, most people call it Las Vegas, but let's be real here) and the city likes to brag that what happens there stays there. What has happened a lot at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is Roush Racing cars have had a ton of success. In 65 starts at Las Vegas, Roush cars have seven wins, 17 top-five and 34 top-10 finishes and have led more than 1,200 laps. Also, the Roushkateers have finished in the top 10 in each of the 14 Sprint Cup races at the track and have finished in the top five 12 times.
So, yes, you'll see a bit of theme in these upcoming picks for the 3 p.m. Sunday race to be shown on FOX.

Matt Kenseth - Roush selection No. 1 has a chance to get off to a great start after winning at Daytona. Winning two of the first three is a real possibility here. He's already got two wins at this track.
Carl Edwards - Roush selection No. 2. He's also got two wins here and has a series high 486 green flag passes at Las Vegas.

Kyle Busch - He does have one win here. This is also his hometown, so you know, it's one of those cases where you just have to pick him.

Jimmie Johnson - Mr. Five-Timer's got four wins here and you know this team is on a mission to eventually get back into the top 10 in points. The No. 48 is 35 points away from that top 10 spot going into Sunday. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him take a big chunk out of that gap.

Mark Martin - So, the former Roush driver is a little old at 53, but he's proven he can still drive. He's also got a quality car in the Michael Waltrip Racing No. 55. And he's also won here once and has six top five finishes. And really, wouldn't it be nice to see him hit Victory Lane at least one more time?


Shoulda, woulda, coulda, but didn't pick: It probably makes all the sense in the world to pick Greg Biffle. He's contended to win the first two races and he's a Roush driver coming to Las Vegas. He hasn't won there yet, but there's a first time for everything.

ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a review of last week's picks at Phoenix and how they finished.
Kasey Kahne - 34th. Early mechanical issues doomed his day. He did finish, but was 28 laps down at the end.
Carl Edwards - 17th. He challenged to be in the top 10 a couple of times, but was not a serious contender all day.
Tony Stewart - 22nd. Seemed to be primed for at least a top 10 finish, and maybe top 5. But when he shut off engine to save gas it wouldn't start back up right away. He was two laps down by the time they got the car started again.
Jimmie Johnson - 4th. Looked like he might run away with the win early, leading 55 laps. Had a tire issue that cost him key places midway through.
Kyle Busch - 6th. He did lead 52 laps, but wasn't in contention to win at the end.
The overall grade is a C again.
Here's a look at my stats after two races and 10 picks.

O wins
2 top fives
2 top 10s

Maybe Vegas will bring some better luck
Until next time

Friday, March 2, 2012

Now that Daytona is behind us ... and Phoenix picks

Now that Daytona is at long last behind us, it's time to get on with the rest of the season. That can be difficult to do at times because of what Daytona means to the sport and especially this year with all of the bizarre happenings there such as dryer fires and tweets all of sudden becoming intricate parts of that Monday night/Tuesday morning in Daytona.

So on to the desert we go at Phoenix at 3 p.m. Sunday afternoon on FOX. The last time we were there in the next to last Chase for the Championship race, all the buzz was about Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards as well as it should have been. One thing when making picks for Phoenix, is that last fall's race was the first on a completely refurbished track, so how drivers did then may be more of an indication of future success than what they did in previous races.
So here goes:

1) Kasey Kahne - Yes, he's on a different and presumably better team, so it's hard not to pick the winner of last fall's race again.

2) Carl Edwards - He avoided disaster at Daytona to finish eighth and now he can get on with business. He was second in the fall race here last year.

3) Tony Stewart - He has always raced well at Phoenix and was third in the fall race here last year. I would not be surprised to see him in Victory Lane this week.

4) Jimmie Johnson - Ok, Ok, I know the track is different but Johnson's numbers at Phoenix just can't be ignored. He's got four wins here and an average finish of 5.4. To paraphrase the late Dale Earnhardt, it doesn't matter whose crew chiefin' this guy can still drive.

5) Kyle Busch - He's got one win here and has run 3,601 laps in the top 15 at Phoenix, the second most to Johnson. He seemed to hold his cool at Daytona, so let's go for two weeks in a row.

Shoulda, woulda coulda but didn't pick - Kevin Harvick. He's got a knack for not running in the top 10 and then all of sudden, there he is with 20 to go challenging for the lead. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this week, but I can't pick the whole field to win here.

We're all about accountability, so here's a look at how my Daytona picks worked out. My hindsight grade is C for Daytona.
Tony Stewart - Finished 16th. Avoided the big wrecks, but could never work his way to the front.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Finished 2nd. He still hasn't won in 130 races (for those of you snoring at home), but he was behind two Ford teammates in Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle, and in front of Denny Hamlin's Toyota on the last lap. So, no help to be found.
Kyle Busch - Finished 17th. Much like Stewart, avoided the bad stuff, but seemed to get trapped in the pack late in the race.
Jimmie Johnson - Finished 42nd. He got caught in a wreck on the second lap. He was probably home in bed before the 500 ended.
Carl Edwards - Finished 8th. He rallied late after having to goto the back with 40 laps to go because one of the windshield tear-offs was removed during the red flag.

The early stats:
0 wins
1 top five
1 top 10

We gotta do better this week.
Until next time

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Is Cheatin' Chad a fair nickname?

For years any NASCAR fan who wasn't a Hendrick Motorsports fan has wondered if that organization, one of, if not the, top one the sport, has been treated a little too kindly by NASCAR officials. We've wondered just how those teams sometimes seem to get the right breaks, like a debris caution, at just the right time.
Well, at least for the moment, those questions must be put to rest with the penalties announced Wednesday against the No. 48 team of Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus. NASCAR's penalty of a $100,000 fine to Knaus and 25 points from the team has some wondering if the penalty is too harsh. If anything, NASCAR made a point that it is not a respecter of big money teams.
In fact, it also made a point that it has a long memory when it comes to messing with its rules. Knaus is undoubtedly one of the, if not the, top crew chiefs in the business. He's got five titles and the best team, yet, still feels the need to push the rules envelope, and as his past has proven, the envelope can get a little full at times.
So, is he really Cheatin' Chad when it comes to preparing the No. 48 car for its races, or just the one that gets caught? It's long been a practice of crew chiefs to try and stretch the rules. Even a 10th of a second per lap is considered a huge gain. However, the same technology that allows teams to find ways to go faster, also allows NASCAR officials a better opportunity to catch the rule breakers. The problem is while Knaus may not be the only rule stretcher, he gets caught a lot.
Here's is history of fines and penalties before this year.
2007 - Six weeks and 100 points (old points system) for flaring out bumpers at Infineon Raceway
2006 - Suspended three weeks and told to leave Daytona for rear window violation
2003 - $1,000 for unapproved air directional advice following all-star race
2003 - $2,500 for roof being too low in pre-race inspection at Charlotte
2002 - $25,000 and 25 points for illegal mounting bolts at Daytona in July
2002 - $5,000 for inappropriate language after race at Dover
2001 - $750 for small windshield clips at Talladega.
Also, the team won an appeal when he was scheduled to be fined $25,000 and Knaus suspended two weeks for a low roof at Las Vegas in 2005.
And last year at Talladega, NASCAR officials' suspicions were raised when Knaus told Johnson to damage the car if he won. In fact, team owner Rick Hendrick has said this year's Daytona car is the same one used in all four restrictor plate races last season. So, did Knaus tinker with this car or was the car illegal all last year until NASCAR was tipped off by the Talladega comment? That we likely will never know.
What we do know is that it had been five years since Knaus had been caught by NASCAR. If it had been less time, the penalty would have likely been more severe.
As it is, Johnson will start the second race of the year at Phoenix Sunday with -23 points, 70 behind leader and Daytona winner Matt Kenseth.
Johnson certainly has the kind of team that can rebound. In fact, the question will be how many races will it take him to reach the top 10 in points, not if he can. My guess is he will be there certainly before they return to Daytona in July and probably sometime in May.
That's one of the reasons Knaus knows he can take a chance. The team is good enough to recover from a mistake, or two or three. But the question now will be if Knaus' reputation as one who will try to cheat can recover.
Probably not, and that's something no fine or penalty will ever repair.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

The talented Mr. Busch

So, if you follow NASCAR at least a little bit you know who Kyle Busch is.
And if you follow NASCAR at least a little bit, you either love him or hate him. It's extremely rare to bring up his name to a NASCAR fan and get a "he's OK, but I don't really have an opinion" type of comment.
But no matter which side of the fence you are on, and judging by the large amount of jeers and much fewer cheers during driver introductions, most are on the "not a fan" side of the fence, it would be wrong to not respect his ability as a driver.
We're not talking about his post-race comments at times, that can be misread or misinterpreted to fit an opinion of him. We're not talking about his lapses of judgement on the track where he bumps a competitor during a caution period. We're talking about his simple, yet rare, ability to drive a race car. And he's got a ton of that.

It was plenty evident during his Bud Shootout win Saturday at Daytona. The 75-lap, two-segment, non-points race, was the first NASCAR event of the 2012 season. There were three big wrecks, just 10 of 25 cars on the lead lap at the end, and 13 cars still running at the end.
But Busch put on a driving display rarely seen.
First, with 28 laps to go, he was bumped by former Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson. It was assumed probably by all watching that the race was in for another big wreck. Afterall, these things happen at Daytona and you just don't keep a car from spinning when you get bumped while going nearly 200 mph. It just doesn't happen.
But with Busch behind the wheel, it happened. He made the improbable save, going down below the yellow line twice and coming back into the racing groove only to not be hit. No big wreck. Just a dented front bumper for Busch, but certainly a very drivable car.
So with two laps to go, Busch found himself in second behind Tony Stewart, ready to make an improbable run for the win. But this time, another former Hendrick teammate (is there a theme here?) bumped him, supposedly sending Busch and likely others on their way out of the competition. But Busch saved it again, and Gordon got caught in the melee. Busch did eventually spin on the infield apron after traffic had passed, but he did not take a hit.
Then, he hooked up with Stewart on the green-white-checkered finish and he eventually pushed Stewart to the lead. And as they approached the final turn, Busch made the pass to win.
So, not only did he survive, he thrived.
It takes a special talent to do both and Busch had it on display Saturday night.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Stewart title would have historic significance

If Tony Stewart does win his third NASCAR Sprint Cup title Sunday, it will have some historical significance. First, Stewart would be the the only driver to win a Sprint Cup title under NASCAR's three championship systems. He won his first crown in 2002, under the system that had been in place since NASCAR's inception. Then, Stewart won a title in 2005, the second year of the Chase for the Championship, when 10 cars made NASCAR's playoffs, and the points were reset, but the races were still scored under NASCAR's old system. If Stewart wins today, he will be the first driver to win the Chase for the Championship in NASCAR's new scoring system, and the only driver who can win the crown under the three different scenarios.
Jimmie Johnson won the last five titles in the Chase for the Championship Series, and Kurt Busch, who won the first crown when the 10-race Chase started in 2004, did not win a title under the original scoring system.
A title would also tie Stewart with Dale Earnhardt for the second most years between crowns at six. Earnhardt won his first crown in 1980, then not again until 1986. The record for longest time between crowns goes to Terry Labonte who won in 1984 and 1996.
A third title will also put Stewart on a very short list in NASCAR history. Only Richard Petty and Earnhardt each with seven, Johnson with his five, Jeff Gordon with four and Lee Petty, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough and Darrell Waltrip each with three, have won more than two NASCAR Sprint Cup titles.
And finally, Stewart would be the first driver-owner to win the crown since the late Alan Kulwicki in 1992, who won a close battle with Bill Elliott by 10 points.

Friday, October 7, 2011

The Yellow Brick Road

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is in the Land of Oz this weekend as it visits Kansas. So just who will have the courage, brains or heart, OK, or maybe even the best car, to gain an edge in the Chase for the Championship standings is anyone's guess. And since, I'm one of those anyones, there are some guesses coming.
The standings heading into Sunday have Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards tied for the points lead, Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart are each nine points behind, Jimmie Johnson is 13 points back, Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski are each 14 points behind, Kyle Busch is 15 points behind and Jeff Gordon is 19 back.
That's nine out of 12 that still have a legitimate shot to win the title with seven races to go. But what will it look like with six to go Sunday. Here are my guesses with my top five picks for the week.

1. Tony Stewart. He's off the concrete and back on the pavement that is similar to what Chicagoland and New Hampshire are like, where he won the first two races of the Chase.

2. Jeff Gordon. He's always been good at Kansas. Like Stewart, he's got two wins there and had eight top-five finishes.

3. Jimmie Johnson. Just when you thought the five-time defending champion might be fading a little, a second place at Dover last week put him right back in it. Don't be surprised if he's in the top five again this week.

4. Greg Biffle. OK, he's not a Chaser, but this Chasee has two wins at Kansas and is due for a visit to Victory Lane.

5. Brad Keselowski. Has been in just three Sprint Cup races at Kansas, but won one of them.
Until next time

Monday, October 3, 2011

The boos and cheers for Dover

The day at Dover was interesting and quite c-c-c-cold. After going to races for years and trying to figure out ways to stay cool, it was quite different to attend one where you spend time trying to stay warm, and that was with two jackets on.
As for the race, it wasn't the best or worst I have seen at Dover. The crowd was small by NASCAR standards. But when many area sports fans are interested in the Eagles 1 p.m. game and the Phillies 8 p.m. playoff game, that leaves NASCAR on the back burner for those who have marginal NASCAR interest.
This time, as a paying customer, it was nice to boo and cheer, even if the drivers can't hear it. Here are my boos and cheers for the day.
BOO: The weather. It was already chilly, walking around before the race. And once you tried to settle into your seat, you realized there was a not-so-nice breeze. This day called for hot chocolate rather than the cold beverages I had for me and my 8-year-old.
CHEER: The Chase for the Championship is just that. After Dover, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards are tied the lead with Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon all within 19 points of the lead.
BOO: Listening to TV and radio coverage on a race scanner, it was difficult to find out who was one lap down or two laps down, especially in the second half of the race. It was especially important as Chase contenders Stewart, Ryan Newman and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were having bad days, but might have been able to improve their positions a little if they were able to get back on the lead lap.
CHEER: If you like to watch a lot of passing, then Carl Edwards was the guy. He was penalized for speeding on the exit of pit lane and the drive through penalty on the following lap put him down one lap. He regained that lap, then finished third in what was probably the fastest car of the day.
BOO: The starting times are simply too late for these Chase races. Yes, ESPN is paying big bucks to show the Chase races and is undoubtedly calling the shots here. And ESPN has its NFL preview shows on until 1 p.m. But why can't the green flag drop at 1:10 or 1:15? It's not too bad getting home at about 8:30 if you live two hours from the track, but any longer than that, makes it too late if school and work are involved the following day. It was really the best when the green flag dropped at about 12:40 back in the day, but let's just assume those days are long gone.
CHEER: Ticket prices at Dover are at least respectable now. And, if you have younger children, they can get in for just $10 in one of the family sections there with an adult ticket of $58. In these times, that's not too bad for two tickets to a major sporting event.
CHEER: The next Sprint Cup race at Dover is June 3, 2012. That's back to its traditional date, rather than the mid-May dates of past two years.
Until next time

Monday, September 26, 2011

Streaky stuff involving Dover

Now that Tony Stewart has won the first two races in the Chase for the Championship, that allows us to think about three in a row, the last time it happened, and what are the possibilities of it happening at Dover this Sunday.
So, here we go, and just as a note, these streaks are dated with the Modern Era, since 1972, when NASCAR began having fewer races in its season.
First, Stewart has never won three in a row. The last time a driver won three straight NASCAR Sprint Cup races was in 2007 when Jimmie Johnson actually won four in a row, taking the checkered flag at Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas and Phoenix. None of those races were in the final 10 Chase for the Championship.
If you're looking for some streak history involving Dover, Cale Yarborough won his second of four straight there in 1976, Bobby Allison won the last of three straight there in 1983, Harry Gant won the third of fourth straight there in 1991, Rusty Wallace won the first of three straight there in 1994 and Jeff Gordon won the first of three straight there in 1996.
So, what are the odds of Stewart winning his third straight this Sunday at Dover? Well, he has two wins, three second-place finishes and 10 top fives there in 25 career starts. However, both wins came in 2000. In this year's May race at Dover, Stewart struggled with a poor handling car and fueling issues and finished 29th.
That seems like a long time ago now, and Stewart can only hope it's a bad memory that won't be repeated.
Stewart will enter the third race in the Chase with a seven-point lead over Kevin Harvick, with Brad Keselowski 11 points behind, and Carl Edwards 14 back.
Until next time.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Who will be loudest at Loudon?

Round 2 of NASCAR's Chase for the Championship is scheduled for Sunday at Loudon, New Hampshire. Round 1 at Chicago had to be pushed to Monday due to rain, and the forecast is a little shaky, so the bump draft to Monday could happen again. At the moment, the forecast for Loudon has showers ending around midday. So, we'll see.
As for what will happen at New Hampshire, no matter which day they run, that's pretty much up in the air. The popular picks are Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart, as the two teammates finished 1-2 there earlier this year. But remember, that was in warmer weather on a slick track, and if it rains at some point in the weekend, which is highly likely, drivers and crew chiefs could be trying to adjust to a cooler and greener track. So with that mind here are my five to go with this week.

1. Tony Stewart - Slick track or not, he's the type of driver who can get on a roll. Would've won this race in the Chase last year, but ran out of gas on final lap.
2. Ryan Newman - Like Stewart, Newman earned his racing stripes on small dirt tracks in the Midwest. So, what works for one should work for another.
3. Jimmie Johnson - He's won three times at New Hampshire and expect him to bounce back to get himself back into the thick of the championship race.
4. Jeff Gordon - He has three wins, also, and has run well the second half of the season.
5. Kyle Busch - This team is too good not to compete for a win here.
Until next time

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Hot water in Hotlanta and picks

It's hard to imagine being too busy to go to the White House if the President calls and asks for your attendance. Whether you agree with his policies or not, if you are too busy to meet the President, unless you are a regular at the White House, then maybe you are just too busy.
But that's the way it is in NASCAR these days. So, when the President invited five-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson and the rest of last year's qualifiers for the Chase of the Championship, all of the 12 could not make it.
It didn't have as much to do with politics as it did with economics. Drivers are often locked into special appearances for key sponsors, or potential sponsors, months ahead of time. So, if they have to cancel one of those appearances for anything less than a death in the family, it could very likely cost them financing for a ride in the short-term or long-term. So, sometimes you just do what have to do, even if it means turning down the President.
Many Sprint Cup drivers are concerned with the short-term, especially with just two races left in NASCAR's regular season. The top 10 in points are guaranteed a spot in the Chase, or NASCAR's playoffs, and the final two Chase spots go to the drivers with the most wins in the top 20 in points.
The first race is Sunday night in Atlanta.
Here's a quick look at how the chase to get into THE CHASE looks.
These guys are already in: Kyle Busch, Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon.
That leaves six spots still up for grabs, sort of.
Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch are all but in. Newman is in if he finishes 20th or 21st and leads a lap or 22nd with the most laps led. Kurt Busch is in if he finishes seventh, eighth with one lap led or ninth with the most laps led. Any of those scenarios would put them 49 points ahead going into the final race at Richmond next Saturday night.
The two on the bubble, sitting in ninth and 10th place are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart. They each could leave Atlanta with spots in the Chase, but would need some help. Junior is 39 points ahead of 11th and Stewart is 21 points ahead of 11th. But neither of them have a win, so they don't have a wild-card spot to fall back on.
Which brings us to the ... wild card.
Brad Keselowski has three wins this season and sits in 11th in points. Unless he has two complete disasters at Atlanta and Richmond and falls out of the top 20 in points, he'll make the Chase.
The final spot going into Atlanta belongs to Denny Hamlin. He's 13th in points, but has that win that 12th place holder Clint Bowyer does not. If Bowyer happens to win in Atlanta, then it would make next Saturday night at Richmond interesting on several levels.
In an entirely different matter, if Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Paul Menard or Marcus Ambrose win at Atlanta there are going to be some happy people. As part of the Sprint Summer Showdown, they would split $3 million with one third going to driver, one third to the driver's chosen charity and one third going to a lucky fan who predicted an earlier victory. Since Keselowski won twice, two fans would split a million. Still not a bad deal.
So with that in mind, here are this week's picks.

Brad Keselowski - He's on a real roll and could make two people $500,000 closer to being millionaires.
Kyle Busch - He's confident and seems ready to challenge Jimmie Johnson for the title.
Jimmie Johnson - Just when we start talking about him being ready to relinquish his crown, he reminds us he's still champion.
Tony Stewart - Desperate for a win, he may gamble late if it means a guaranteed spot in the Chase.
Kurt Busch - Always a threat in Hotlanta.
Until next time




Friday, August 26, 2011

Welcome to the quiet before the storm hits ... and picks

I had to take this blog post title right of the lyrics from the TobyMac song Ignition, which is of course, where I got the idea for the name for this blog. And yes, this really is the quiet before the storm hits the East Coast.
There's a storm, or maybe even storms, of another type that could be brewing in the NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Bristol tonight. Let's hope we have power long enough to at least watch the race, which starts at 7 p.m.
Some questions:
Will we see a Keselowski-Kyle Busch push and shove battle on the track?
Will we see a Kurt Busch-Jimmie Johnson push and shove battle on the track?
Will we see an upset driver who gets crashed out of the race throw a helmet at a fellow competitor?
Isn't it about time Tony Stewart's frustrations boil over at somebody, since he's got to be frustrated about not winning a race yet this year?
Is this the night Dale Earnhardt Jr. breaks his over three-year winless streak?
The answers:
Yes, no, yes, yes, no.
OK, on with the picks
Kyle Busch - He's on a roll right now.
Ryan Newman - He's on the pole and that's important at the concrete half-mile of Bristol.
Kurt Busch - He'd love to bump Johnson out of the way for a win here.
Carl Edwards - A Roush car is due for a win.
Kevin Harvick - No better track for the neighborhood bully
Until next time

Friday, August 12, 2011

A Road Course or Curse and picks

Some NASCAR drivers might call this weekend's Sprint Cup race at Watkins Glen more of a road curse, rather than a road course. It's one of the two times during the season that NASCAR drivers get the chance to make right-hand turns. And actually, for a couple of times a year, it can be rather enjoyable to watch. The reason, is unlike the open-wheel cars that regularly run the road courses, the NASCAR guys and rub and bump fenders without causing a major accidents. However, if a driver does get "booted" as Kyle Busch likes to say, it can cost him several, sometimes as much as 20, places if he is running up front.
It will be curious to see if Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch get a chance to rub fenders this week. It's true what Busch said last week, that fans do like seeing two drivers go after on piece of real estate and neither one giving in.
Here's what Johnson had to stay before practice at Watkins Glen:


So, here we go with picks:
Tony Stewart - Five wins here. I'm gonna keep picking him until he gets one this year.
Jeff Gordon - Was king of the road courses until Stewart came a long. Will have to be dealt with.
Juan Pablo Montoya - The No. 42 team could soothe a disappointing week, with two crewmen being fired after drug accusations were made against them, and season with a win. Montoya is one of the best on the roads.
Marcus Ambrose - A major threat to win anytime he's on a road course.
Boris Said - As a closet "Said Head" this is one of only two times a season I can pick him, so I am.
Until next time


Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Stewart talks Pocono (video) and other notes

The Sprint Cuppers visit Pocono Sunday, and with three different turns, the Tricky Triangle can often be a nightmare for crew chiefs when it comes to making cars handle well. Sometimes you can be good in two of the turns, but not the other. There's also the matter of power as Pocono has the longest front straightaway in NASCAR at 3,055 feet and then there's the matter of endurance, with it being a 500-mile race.
Tony Stewart, a two-time winner at Pocono, says its possible to have a car that can handle well in all three Pocono turns.




Here are some other interesting NASCAR numbers heading into race No. 21 on the schedule.

4 - Number of first time Sprint Cup winners this season, most since 2007 and number of wins by Denny Hamlin at Pocono
5 - Number of wins by Jeff Gordon at Pocono, tying Bill Elliott for most all-time at Pocono.
6 - Number of season sweeps at Pocono. Those who have won two races in one season at the Tricky Triangle are Bobby Allison, 1982; Bill Elliott, 1985; Tim Richmond, 1986; Bobby Labonte, 1999; Jimmie Johnson, 2004; Denny Hamlin 2006.
7 - Number of places Dale Earnhardt Jr. has dropped in the standings since the June Pocono race when he left in third, but is 10th heading into this weekend.
167 - Number of races needed by Paul Menard to earn his first win, the 10th most all-time.
250 - The number of Sprint Cup starts Carl Edwards will have assuming he takes the green flag Sunday.
5,0000 - Number of laps Hamlin will have led in his Sprint Cup career if he leads just one lap Sunday.
Until next time

Friday, July 29, 2011

Brickyard can breed champions; picks too

Drivers who win the Brickyard 400 often go on to bigger and better things, like Sprint Cup titles. Of the 17 races at Indy, the winner has gone on to win the title eight times.
You've got Jimmie Johnson with three (2006, 2008 and 2009), Jeff Gordon with two (1998 and 2001) and Dale Jarrett (1998), Bobby Labonte (2000) and Tony Stewart (2005) each with one.
So, pay attention to Sunday's winner. If he makes the Chase, it could be a sign of better things to come.

After a week off (and a winning pick with Ryan Newman), we're back with picks for Indy.
1) Tony Stewart - He's won twice here and really needs a win to help his Chase chances.
2) Jeff Gordon - Will he become the first five-time winner at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway? It's quite possible.
3) Juan Pablo Montoya - Could be the first guy to win the Indy 500 and Brickyard 400, so have to pick him here.
4) Jimmie Johnson - A three-time winner at Indy, could join teammate Gordon with a fourth.
5) Kevin Harvick - He's got one win here and is one of three drivers (Stewart and Gordon are the other two) to average a top 10 finish at Indy.
Until next time

Friday, July 22, 2011

The 1-2 punch

The Sprint Cuppers have the week off before they head to Indianapolis next week. Here's a look at some things about teammates Ryan Newman's and Tony Stewart's 1-2 finish at New Hampshire last week.

ONE-TWO PUNCH
It was the first time that the drivers who started first and second finished first and second since the June 2006 race at Pocono.
It was the first time that teammates started 1-2 and finished 1-2 since the 1989 Daytona 500 when Darrell Waltrip and Ken Schrader did it for Hendrick Motorsports.
It was also the first time that the teammate who started first finished first, and the teammate who started second finished second since April 7, 1957, when Fireball Roberts won and Paul Goldsmith was second at North Wilkesboro.

CHASE CITY
There are seven races left in the race for the Chase to the Championship, and obviously, Newman is almost certain to make it. With a coveted victory and an eighth-place spot in the standings, he's in good shape. Stewart helped himself with the second-place finish, but is still 11th in points (he's actually tied for 10th with Denny Hamlin, but Hamlin has a win) and without a victory. However, he does have some tracks where he has been successful coming up on the schedule, including Indianapolis, Pocono and the road course at Watkins Glen. Stewart's bound to get a win at one of those places.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. took another hit in the points standings with a 15th-place finish due to a penalty when his pit crew didn't corral a tire properly during a pit stop. Junior is now just seven points ahead of the 11th-place Stewart and doesn't have a win to fallback on like 13th place David Ragan does, who would be in the Chase if it started this weekend. And for those of you snoring at home, Earnhardt Jr. hasn't won in over three years and 111 races.
Another driver to watch if he gets another win is Brad Keselowski. He's 23rd in points, but has one win. If he gets into the top 20 in points he would be eligible for one of the final two Chase spots. A second victory would likely accomplish that feat.
There have been 13 different winners in 19 races this season. If that trend continues the race for those two wild-card spots to reach the Chase could be wild. And there will likely be a lot more gambling on fuel and tire strategies to gain track position for drivers in the top 20 who need a victory.

PICK RESULTS
Not a bad week in the picks department here last week. My five were Kyle Busch (blown tire put him in 36th), Kurt Busch (10th), Stewart, Jimmie Johnson (5th) and Newman.
Until next time