Showing posts with label Denny Hamlin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denny Hamlin. Show all posts

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Will Danica be a Darlington darling? ... and picks

They call Darlington the Lady in Black, but for at least some NASCAR fans, Saturday's 7 p.m. race on FOX will be about the lady in green. Yes, Danica Patrick will make her first appearance in the Sprint Cup series since the season-opening Daytona 500. This much we know because the No. 10 car owned by Tommy Baldwin Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing has been reserved for Patrick and is inside the top 35 in owners points.
For sure  there are some Danica haters out there. She's become popular just as much for her appearance as for her driving skill. But as women face an uphill battle to break into a sport that is predominantly male, can she really be blamed for using all of her assets to bring in much needed sponsorship dollars?
Unfortunately, it's hard to blame her for that.
 I say unfortunate because there are some talented male drivers out there who are having sponsorship issues. Can somebody tell me why a young handsome, well-spoken driver and 2011 Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne can't find a full-time sponsor? Or even former Sprint Cup champion Matt Kenseth, this year's Daytona 500 winner and a title contender again, has taken nearly one third of this season to find a regular full-time sponsor?
So, no, don't blame Danica for doing what she has to do. Ultimately, what she does on the track will matter - at least that's what we think. Whether that will be true or not remains to be seen.
As for how she will do Saturday night, Danica fans shouldn't come in with any big expectations. If she finishes inside the top 20, that would be a good accomplishment. If she finishes in the top 10, that wold be a big deal. Darlington is not kind to newcomers, so expect a big learning curve here.
As for the regular picks this week, here's a look at my top five:
Greg Biffle: The current points leader has two wins and five top 10s, so he's gotta be picked here.
Jimmie Johnson: Also two wins and he has yet to win this season, so he's really due for an appearance in Victory Lane.
Denny Hamlin: He doesn't have a ton of experience at Darlington with just six races, but he does have one win and an average finish of 6.5. And he normally drives a black car, so hey, the Lady in Black must like him.
Tony Stewart: This is one of two Sprint Cup tracks Stewart has not won on yet, so he'll be fired up to contend. He does have an average finish of 12.3 and three top fives at Darlington.
Kasey Kahne: He's had a string of good finishes now, including last week's fourth at Talladega. He does have the seventh-best driver rating and started on the pole last year, which shows he knows how to get around the 1.25-mile oval.
Coulda,shoulda, woulda: The numbers are jumping right out of the computer screen on this one, but couldn't pull the trigger here. Jeff Gordon has seven wins at Darlington and his team, Hendrick Racing, has 13 total victories. And the Hendrick team is still looking for that elusive 200th career Sprint Cup win. But just too much bad luck for the No. 24 this year to pick him this time.



ACCOUNTABILITY GROUP
Here's a look at how last week's picks fared at Talladega.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 9th. So much for my lock stock guaranteed absolutely without question can't miss winning prediction. The winless streak is now at 139 for those of you snoring at home.
Brad Keselowski: - 1st. OK, so I didn't give you a guarantee here, but that's two winners in a row I've given you.
Kevin Harvick - 25th. He was a contender again until getting caught up in a late accident.
Jimmie Johnson - 35th. He had a grenade engine, nothing more restricting than that at a plate track.
Juan Pablo Montoya - 32nd. Well, he didn't run into the jet dryer. Doesn't that count as a win?
Here's a look at my results after 10 races and 50 picks.
 4 wins
12 top fives
 8 top 10s
Grade for the week: B. We did get another winner this week as at least one of the Penske cars continued to run strong on a plate track. Engine woes and accidents put a damper on the rest of the day.
One Last Thing: Carl Edwards finished 31st last week at Talladega and dropped to 11th in the points standings. Edwards was the runner-up in for the championship last year and is trying to break a recent stretch of poor performances the following season by the previous year's runnerup. Denny Hamlin finished ninth last year, Mark Martin was 13th in 2010, and Edwards was 11th in 2009.


Saturday, September 3, 2011

Hot water in Hotlanta and picks

It's hard to imagine being too busy to go to the White House if the President calls and asks for your attendance. Whether you agree with his policies or not, if you are too busy to meet the President, unless you are a regular at the White House, then maybe you are just too busy.
But that's the way it is in NASCAR these days. So, when the President invited five-time defending NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson and the rest of last year's qualifiers for the Chase of the Championship, all of the 12 could not make it.
It didn't have as much to do with politics as it did with economics. Drivers are often locked into special appearances for key sponsors, or potential sponsors, months ahead of time. So, if they have to cancel one of those appearances for anything less than a death in the family, it could very likely cost them financing for a ride in the short-term or long-term. So, sometimes you just do what have to do, even if it means turning down the President.
Many Sprint Cup drivers are concerned with the short-term, especially with just two races left in NASCAR's regular season. The top 10 in points are guaranteed a spot in the Chase, or NASCAR's playoffs, and the final two Chase spots go to the drivers with the most wins in the top 20 in points.
The first race is Sunday night in Atlanta.
Here's a quick look at how the chase to get into THE CHASE looks.
These guys are already in: Kyle Busch, Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon.
That leaves six spots still up for grabs, sort of.
Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch are all but in. Newman is in if he finishes 20th or 21st and leads a lap or 22nd with the most laps led. Kurt Busch is in if he finishes seventh, eighth with one lap led or ninth with the most laps led. Any of those scenarios would put them 49 points ahead going into the final race at Richmond next Saturday night.
The two on the bubble, sitting in ninth and 10th place are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart. They each could leave Atlanta with spots in the Chase, but would need some help. Junior is 39 points ahead of 11th and Stewart is 21 points ahead of 11th. But neither of them have a win, so they don't have a wild-card spot to fall back on.
Which brings us to the ... wild card.
Brad Keselowski has three wins this season and sits in 11th in points. Unless he has two complete disasters at Atlanta and Richmond and falls out of the top 20 in points, he'll make the Chase.
The final spot going into Atlanta belongs to Denny Hamlin. He's 13th in points, but has that win that 12th place holder Clint Bowyer does not. If Bowyer happens to win in Atlanta, then it would make next Saturday night at Richmond interesting on several levels.
In an entirely different matter, if Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Paul Menard or Marcus Ambrose win at Atlanta there are going to be some happy people. As part of the Sprint Summer Showdown, they would split $3 million with one third going to driver, one third to the driver's chosen charity and one third going to a lucky fan who predicted an earlier victory. Since Keselowski won twice, two fans would split a million. Still not a bad deal.
So with that in mind, here are this week's picks.

Brad Keselowski - He's on a real roll and could make two people $500,000 closer to being millionaires.
Kyle Busch - He's confident and seems ready to challenge Jimmie Johnson for the title.
Jimmie Johnson - Just when we start talking about him being ready to relinquish his crown, he reminds us he's still champion.
Tony Stewart - Desperate for a win, he may gamble late if it means a guaranteed spot in the Chase.
Kurt Busch - Always a threat in Hotlanta.
Until next time




Tuesday, August 16, 2011

No more right hand turns

There will be no more right hand turns (at least not intentional ones) for the NASCAR Sprint Cuppers this season after Monday's rain-delayed Watkins Glen race was completed.
What turned out to be the final lap Monday was about as crazy as one can get this side of Daytona or Talladega. And just as is often the case at those places, there was a big last lap crash. Check out this video taken by a fan who happened to be sitting in the turn where the crash took place.




So, who were the biggest losers and winners Monday.
The biggest winner may have been the second-place finisher Brad Keselowski. He's got two wins and sits 14th in points, so he's in good shape to make the Chase for the Championship with four races remaining in NASCAR's regular season.
Another big winner was of course Marcos Ambrose, who gave NASCAR its fifth first-time winner this season and the 15th different winner this season. It was Ambrose's first win in 105 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series attempts.
The biggest loser was Denny Hamlin who crashed out to finish 36th. He's still in the Chase, sitting 12th in points with a win. But he's only 27 points ahead of the next highest driver with a win, Paul Menard.
The other big loser on the final lap was Tony Stewart. He was looking at a top 10 finish, but crashed and finished 27th. He's still 10th in points and in the Chase at the moment, 25 points ahead of Clint Bowyer in 11th. Stewart nor Bowyer have a win to fall back on to be eligible for one of the final two wild-card spots, so being in the top in points is crucial to each of them.
And of course, like often happens in NASCAR, there's two guys who really don't like each other in Boris Said and Greg Biffle. Here's the video to that, too.



Until next time

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

A little less Thunder on the Mountain

For years drivers and many fans have been complaining that the two Pocono races were too long, at 500 miles. On the often hot and humid days up on the mountain, the extra distance took a physical toll on drivers and on equipment with its three unique turns and long front straightaway. As for the fans, sometimes it's hard to think about going and sitting out in the heat and humidity for what was often times in excess of four hours. So it was announced Wednesday the races starting next year will be 400 miles.
The pure racing fans probably won't like the move to the shorter distance. The extra miles are suppose to tell us who is the best driver and who has the best car. But with the Car of Tomorrow, that often doesn't tell us who is going to win the race anyway as these cars are hard to pass in traffic. These days it's all about track position and fuel strategy at the end, it doesn't matter if its 400 or 500 miles.


Looking ahead
With bits and pieces of the 2012 schedule known, here's how the Dover-Pocono schedule is shaping up. Dover's first race will be June 3 and then it will be to Pocono the next weekend, June 10. Then the Sprint Cuppers return to Pocono on Aug. 5 and their final time in the area will be at Dover Sept. 30.

Thunder on the Mountain
Thunder on the Mountain is a Bob Dylan song, but maybe the good people at Pocono Raceway should use that as their marketing theme for two reasons: 1) Simply the loudness of the cars as they rumble down the long straightaway. 2) It seems like you can almost count on some type of afternoon thundershower up there in these summer months to delay things for a while, like the 1 hour, 40 minute delay we had Sunday.

Helpers and hurters
The final 19 laps at Pocono Sunday brought about some changes in the points standings.
First, Joey Logano, who had been in contention to win much of the day, fell from the top 10 and finished 26th. Second, Denny Hamlin, who was also in contention to win much of the day, faded late and finished 15th. Gibbs Racing teammates Logano and Hamlin combined to lead 109 laps. Hamlin's faded coincided with Tony Stewart's charge from 20th to 11th in those final laps, meaning Stewart remained ninth in the points standings, one ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. The two wild-card spots based on the wins by drivers who are 11th-20th in the points go to winner Brad Keselowski, who has two wins this season, and Hamlin, who has one, but is 11th the overall standings.
Until next time.



Sunday, August 7, 2011

Caution with 21 laps to go

The fifth caution just came out as Juan Pablo Montoya spun. This will bunch the field back up for the field 18 or 19 laps left. We'll see if the sore-footed Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson or Kurt Busch or someone else can give him a challenge. Hamlin takes a big hit on pit stops due to a dropped lug nut when the tire moved a little.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Pickin' for Pocono and flag stand crash


The last couple of weeks the end game has been the tricky part of the race, so maybe there will be more fuel strategy in the final laps at Pocono's Tricky Triangle Sunday. Last week Jeff Gordon unquestionably had the fastest car, but settled for second as Paul Menard combined a good car with better fuel mileage. So, as has been the case in racing for years, the fastest car doesn't always see the checkered flag first. Since Pocono is 500 miles (whether you like it or not), and because of the three distinctly different turns, there can be more accidents than usual.
Hopefully, a truck series hauler demoloshing the flag stand is not a sign of things to come. My guess is we could see more fuel mileage games in the final 50 laps on the 2.5-mile track Sunday afternoon. And with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, somebody could try and steal a win by not pitting when the raindrops start to fall.
So with all that in mind, here are my Pocono picks:

1) Denny Hamlin - Four wins in young career at Pocono.
2) Jeff Gordon - Is tied for most wins at Pocono with five.
3) Carl Edwards - The potential No. 1 free agent just announced he's returning to Roush, so there's all kind of positive vibes for this team.
4) Tony Stewart - He's got two wins here, desperately looking for a third to help his Chase chances.
5) Mark Martin - When you're talking fuel mileage, and endurance tests, he's one of the best at saving fuel and still is in great physical condition for his age.
Until next time

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Stewart talks Pocono (video) and other notes

The Sprint Cuppers visit Pocono Sunday, and with three different turns, the Tricky Triangle can often be a nightmare for crew chiefs when it comes to making cars handle well. Sometimes you can be good in two of the turns, but not the other. There's also the matter of power as Pocono has the longest front straightaway in NASCAR at 3,055 feet and then there's the matter of endurance, with it being a 500-mile race.
Tony Stewart, a two-time winner at Pocono, says its possible to have a car that can handle well in all three Pocono turns.




Here are some other interesting NASCAR numbers heading into race No. 21 on the schedule.

4 - Number of first time Sprint Cup winners this season, most since 2007 and number of wins by Denny Hamlin at Pocono
5 - Number of wins by Jeff Gordon at Pocono, tying Bill Elliott for most all-time at Pocono.
6 - Number of season sweeps at Pocono. Those who have won two races in one season at the Tricky Triangle are Bobby Allison, 1982; Bill Elliott, 1985; Tim Richmond, 1986; Bobby Labonte, 1999; Jimmie Johnson, 2004; Denny Hamlin 2006.
7 - Number of places Dale Earnhardt Jr. has dropped in the standings since the June Pocono race when he left in third, but is 10th heading into this weekend.
167 - Number of races needed by Paul Menard to earn his first win, the 10th most all-time.
250 - The number of Sprint Cup starts Carl Edwards will have assuming he takes the green flag Sunday.
5,0000 - Number of laps Hamlin will have led in his Sprint Cup career if he leads just one lap Sunday.
Until next time

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Phoenix predictions

OK,so after a thrilling Daytona last week we're on to the rest of the schedule, where really the championship race begins. Daytona's great because the style of racing is so different, but history tells us that it often is not a good predictor of what will happen the rest of the season.
So race No. 2 is Phoenix and here's a look at my top five picks to have some fun in the desert.

1) Carl Edwards - This team is starting on the pole and won the last two races last year, and was second at Daytona. They could keep right on rolling.

2) Tony Stewart - He may have more laps at this track than any other driver and he wants to get the season off to a good start, instead of waiting for a mid-summer surge.

3) Kurt Busch - Always a strong contender in Arizona.

4) Kyle Busch - Too close to Vegas to be shown up by his brother

5) Denny Hamlin - Is he ready to show us he can win a championship? Today will be a real sign of what's to come.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Guilty as charged

When the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship prediction ballot came out a couple of weeks ago, I wanted to pick somebody other than Jimmie Johnson to win the title. Denny Hamlin, with a break here or there, could have won it last year. It could be time for Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart, the last guy not named Jimmie Johnson to win the Sprint Cup title, to take a turn as champion. Maybe neighborhood bully Kevin Harvick will bump enough people out of the way to win the big trophy.
But when the green flag dropped to make the pick, I reluctantly picked Johnson. The reluctance wasn't because any particular dislike for Johnson. Other than goofing around on a golf cart and falling and breaking his wrist between the 2006 and 2007 seasons, he's done nothing to warrant national negative attention.
The reluctance comes because at some point, the championship run has to end. But Johnson and crew chief Chad Knauss have those last 10 races in the Chase for the Championship figured out. There was no change in the schedule, so there's no reason to think they won't have the end game figured out again.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

No more bumps, but more bumping in Shootout

NASCAR released the lineup for the Bud Shootout to be held at Daytona International Speedway Saturday, Feb. 12. It will be broadcast on FOX with the green flag set for 8:10 p.m. Though it's not a Sprint Cup Series points race, it will be the first race on the newly paved speedway. The speedway didn't undergo a simple resurfacing project during this offseason, it was much more in depth. The old surface was torn up and taken off, then after landscaping work, the new surface was put down. No more bumps, but maybe more bumping on the smooth surface.
Here's a look at the drivers that are in and the criteria that made them eligible.

2010 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Drivers
Jimmie Johnson
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Carl Edwards
Matt Kenseth
Greg Biffle
Tony Stewart
Kyle Busch
Jeff Gordon
Clint Bowyer
Kurt Busch
Jeff Burton

Others (criteria in parentheses)
John Andretti (Coke Zero 400)
Geoff Bodine (Daytona 500, Budweiser Shootout)
Kevin Conway (Series rookie of the year)
Derrike Cope (Daytona 500)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400, Budweiser Shootout)
Bill Elliott (Series champion, Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400, Budweiser Shootout)
Kasey Kahne (Series rookie of the year)
Bobby Labonte (Series champion)
Terry Labonte (Series champion, Budweiser Shootout)
Joey Logano (Series rookie of the year)
Sterling Marlin (Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400)
Mark Martin (Budweiser Shootout)
Jamie McMurray (Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400, Series rookie of the year)
Juan Pablo Montoya (Series rookie of the year)
Ryan Newman (Daytona 500, Series rookie of the year)
Ken Schrader (Budweiser Shootout)
Regan Smith (Series rookie of the year)
Michael Waltrip (Daytona 500, Coke Zero 400)

The event is 75 laps, with two segments, the first one being 25 laps with a 10-minute pit stop for crews to change tires and make any other adjustments. Yellow flags will count and the starting order will be determined by a blind draw at 8 p.m., Feb. 11.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

The Heat is on in Homestead

No, we're not going to talk about the Miami Heat, we're talking about some guys who really want to win. Here are some random thoughts on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase for the Championship as it comes down to Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson just 15 points back and Kevin Harvick, 46 points back.

The leader
In any sport, with the possible exception of golf, it's always better to be ahead than behind. So, Hamlin does have 15 points to play with here. Johnson and Harvick are chasing him, it's not the other way around. Hamlin will start 37th today in Homestead, but he won from 38th last year. He just has to avoid early trouble, and it shouldn't be a big deal because the non-contending drivers don't want to be the ones to decide the championship, so they'll be extra careful around Hamlin, Johnson and Harvick.

The defender
Johnson has won the title four years in a row. The big thing here is that if he wants to eventually get to the all-time mark of seven titles, he doesn't want to let one get away. Johnson has had just one top-five finish at Homestead since 2005, but that's an overrated stat. That's because in the past four seasons, he's gone into that race protecting a sizable lead with the lone goal of just staying out of trouble, not getting a high finish. He knows he has to go for the win today.

The neighborhood bully
It was no surprise that Harvick said he would do whatever it takes to win the title. That's translated as if you're in his way and not faster than him, he'll bump you right out of the way. He's done it all year to different drivers, so there's no reason to think he'd not do it with everything on the line. However, at least he's honest about it, so there's that.

So, how's this going to play out?
Johnson has the sixth starting spot, easily the best of the three, and he won't be afraid to be safely aggressive. He's been trying to say the pressure's on Hamlin all week, but really the pressure's on him. And that's why I'm picking him to come out of Miami the winner. Chad Knaus may be the best crew chief (whether you like his pompous attitude or not) and Johnson has Jeff Gordon's crew again this week. There were a couple of other Chase races where Johnson was well back in the pack and had a top five and a top 10 finish anyway. That's when he really won this thing and the track position today will get him the start he needs.

Here's a look at my top five for today:
Johnson
Hamlin
Harvick
Carl Edwards
Kasey Kahne
I actually like Edwards to win this race. He's the kind of driver that can get hot, but this time it's coming too late in the season.
Enjoy the race

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Five questions five picks

Here's a quick take on some NASCAR happenings this week, along with picks for Phoenix

1. Does Jeff Gordon need to take boxing lessons? Yes, but it was good to see him stand up for himself, even if was against Jeff Burton.
2. Has Jeff Burton replace Mark Martin as the classiest act in NASCAR? Probably. He admitted he made the mistake in the Gordon wreck and didn't blame Gordon for being fightin' mad.
3. Will the close Chase race save the current points system? Probably not. But lets hope the NASCAR bosses use a system that rewards some type of consistency, not some attention getting quick-fix scheme.
4. Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. ever win another race? Yes, certainly, but probably not either of these last two. Let's go with the early race at Talladega in 2011.
5. Can Denny Hamlin become the next NASCAR Sprint Cup champion? Yes, he can, but he'll need to hold off Johnson at Phoenix this week, one of Johnson's best track. The Phoenix race may be even more key than the finale at Homestead, just because Johnson has been dominant at Phoenix.

OK, here's the picks:
1. Jimmie Johnson. Thought I'd surprise with this one.
2. Kevin Harvick. The neighborhood bully just keeps hanging around.
3. Tony Stewart. Due for a late-season win.
4. Carl Edwards. Can't believe he is winless this year.
5. Denny Hamlin. Too much at stake for him not to try and win this.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Martinsville picks

The Sprint Cup guys are back at a short track with Martinsville and sometimes that can be a little tricky for the Chase contenders. They won't want to get a lap down and really, if there are any scores to settle here, it could happen in a very innocent looking way as "just one of them racing deals."

Here we go with this week's Five Guys:
Denny Hamlin - If he wants to challenge Jimmie Johnson, now is the time. He's just 41 points back, but he needs a win and this is a good chance for him as he starts on the pole.
Jimmie Johnson - He dropped to 37th at one point last week, then finished third. That's what championship teams do. All of the contenders know Johnson needs a 30th or worse finish to let them back in. They also know it's not likely to happen.
Tony Stewart - He's a short track guy, and even though he's pretty much out of contention for the Chase at 171 points back, he'd love to win at this place.
Greg Biffle - He qualified at third and has shown the ability to win this year, even though he hasn't been consistent.
Juan Pablo Montoya - He's my non-Chaser pick of the week. He doesn't mind being aggressive on the short tracks, so if he can keep his cool, and pick the right time to bump guys out of the way, he could be there at the end.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Some real shocking picks here

NASCAR is on its home track in Charlotte this week, amounting to a week at home for the on-track crew and drivers. It's a week without a lot of travel that they all appreciate.
One driver who probably appreciates Charlotte as much as anyone is Jimmie Johnson. He's in the lead for the Chase for the Championship and is the favorite to win a fifth straight title. So with that in mind, here's the picks for this week.

Jimmie Johnson. Knew you'd be surprised.
Jeff Gordon. He's on the pole and if anybody needs a win, it's him.
Tony Stewart. If not for running out of gas at New Hampshire, he'd be right on Johnson's bumper.
Denny Hamlin. If he wants to truly challenge Johnson for the title, he needs to win this week on a track that Johnson has been traditionally strong at.
Kasey Kahne. He seems to run well at Charlotte, and I'm not picking all Chasers this week.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

The Yellow Brick Road

The NASCAR boys are in Kansas this weekend and this, the third race in the Chase, is when we start to get more separation between the haves and have nots in the Chase.
So, with my five picks for this week (yes, I had Jimmie Johnson last week at Dover), maybe we can get a little more clarity in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Yes, he's second to Denny Hamlin in the points, but he's the guy to beat.
Denny Hamlin: Probably the only driver who has the combination of consistency and win-ability to challenge Johnson.
Carl Edwards: He says he would rather win in Kansas, about 90 minutes from his hometown of Columbia, Mo., than anywhere including Daytona or Indy. Really? Well, he could use a win right now and has been pretty consistent for a while, so it might be about time for a visit to Victory Lane.
Clint Bowyer: Cheatin' Clint (I know, he has no idea what exactly the crew does to the car, but he's guilty by association here), would love to win in his home state and get a legal victory.
Kasey Kahne: He's starting up front, and as you may well know, clean air is everything with these cars

The guy I probably should have picked but didn't ... Jeff Burton. Just a hunch.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

The Chasees and the Chasers ... and New Hampshire

Here's a quick breakdown of the Chase drivers, the final 12 who are eligible to win the NASCAR Sprint Cup title in these final 10 races, starting today at New Hampshire.

1. Jimmie Johnson: He's the king until he's unkinged, and has to be the favorite, even though he's struggled a bit lately.
2. Denny Hamlin: He's getting on a roll at the right time and starts with the lead due to his six wins.
3. Kevin Harvick: He won the regular season points and has been consistent this year. However, top 10s just won't getting it done when it comes to winning the Chase. He needs top five and at least two victories.
4. Tony Stewart: He had the victory in Atlanta, but hasn't had his normal hot streak, so he's got a real chance.
5. Carl Edwards: Whether you like him or not, the combination of the driver and team are too good to not win a race. They've been getting closer lately, too.
6. Kyle Busch: He's capable of winning two or three in a row at any point. Also capable of a finishing 30th or worse in a couple of races. Talladega could be key race for him.
7. Jeff Gordon: If he wants to break his winless streak, now would be a good time. He's actually a bit of an underdog here.
8. Kurt Busch: Has a bit of chip on his shoulder after getting penalized 15 minutes of practice time for having a set of extra tires. That chip just might be what he needs.
9. Clint Bowyer: A good qualifying run at New Hampshire helps him. Clean air means a lot in these cars and he needs to get off to a good start to have a chance.
10. Greg Biffle: Did get an elusive win at Pocono and also capable of getting hot at any time.
11. Matt Kenseth: Maybe the quietest Chase entry. He needs to show that he can win to have a chance.
12. JefF Burton: An underrated driver who has a knack for showing up in the top five at end of races. So, don't count him out.
My pick to win the whole thing ... Denny Hamlin, to unseat Johnson.

My top five for New Hampshire:
1. Tony Stewart: Has always been fast there.
2. Denny Hamlin: Can't ignore a guy on a hot streak.
3. Jimmie Johnson: Yes, they were off in qualifying, starting 25th, but he'll be there in the end.
4. Carl Edwards: First win this year will come soon.
5. Juan Pablo Montoya: Just because you're not in the chase, doesn't mean you can't win a race.

Friday, September 10, 2010

Getting richer in Richmond and picks

In past seasons, the race in Richmond has been one of the more riveting as the final positions to get into the Chase for the Championship are close, giving us some kind of suspense. But that's not the case this year, but that may not necessarily be a bad thing. Clint Bowyer enters the race in the 12th and final spot, 113 points ahead of Ryan Newman. The first 10 places are already guaranteed, so no reason to play it safe for those guys. And that's what might make this race a little interesting. These guys are going to be gambling for the win, to get the 10 extra points for a better position in the Chase. No playing it safe, on the so-called boring points racing, which isn't really racing at all. So, hopefully, we'll see some of the top teams going just for the win. The way it should be.
Here are this week's picks:
Carl Edwards: Second last week at Atlanta, on pole this week, he's got to win one soon.
Jeff Gordon: Solid all year, will be aggressive in trying to get first victory of season.
Denny Hamlin: Always a favorite at Richmond. He runs well there, but only has one win. He could make it two Saturday night.
Jimmie Johnson: It's about time for the four-time defending champion to heat up.
Kevin Harvick: The neighbor bully won the Nationwide racing Friday night, and the points leader would love to get 10 more bonus points for a better Chase position.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

late picks ... or maybe not

Apologies for the late picks this week, but they may not be they may not be that late if today's race is postponed by rain, which is the talk in the media room this morning.
Here goes:
Denny Hamlin: Have to pick him here.
Tony Stewart: Usually races better than he qualifies, so the fact that he's on the pole is a good sign for him.
Kurt Busch: He's always liked it here.
Carl Edwards: If Ford gets first win this year, it would be no surprise if it was at Pocono with Edwards.
Kevin Harvick: Neighborhood bully always seems to be around at the end of these 500-milers.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Bumper cars and picks

Did Jeff Gordon show us his version of bumper cars last Sunday at Sonoma? I think so. It was a combination of Gordon having a good car and knowing how to drive it on the road course, and his frustration of having a winning-type of car in several races this year and not winning. So, it was a if-I-can-get-to-your-back-bumper-I'm-going-to-test-it kind of day for Gordon. If another driver saw him moving up in the rear-view mirror, then it was best to make sure you stayed far enough ahead of him so he couldn't tap you out of the way, or just let him go or risk losing several positions.
The question is was Gordon too aggressive? Gordon might have well been testing NASCAR's hands-off policy for this season and well, when you're trying to win a race, much like the late Dale Earnhardt did more than a few times, it's certainly worth testing.


Here's a look at how last week's picks finished

Kasey Kahne: Finished fourth had a nice run that this team needed.
Jeff Gordon: Took fifth. Couldn't get to Kahne's bumper or would have been higher.
Tony Stewart: 9th. Pit strategy put him a hole late or would have been a top-five finisher.
Marcus Ambrose: 6th. Should have won this thing, put messed up big time trying to save fuel on a yellow flag lap.
Boris Said: 8th. The Said Man ran a good race and might have finished a little higher only to get bumped out of line late in the race.

This week's pick for New Hampster ... make that Hampshire

Kyle Busch - Not the only Gibbs car I'm picking this week
Denny Hamlin - Can't do these picks for an oval and not pick him.
Tony Stewart - Always runs well at this track.
Juan Pablo Montoya - Sort of taking a shot here, but looked good in early practice ... that's right, we're talking about ... practice.
Kevin Harvick: The Neighborhood Bully and points leader is due for a win.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

They're bad and Nationwide

Some impressions from Saturday's Nationwide race at Dover.

When Kyle Busch has it all going like he did Saturday, he's a treat to watch. A couple of things you can't help but notice is that when he's going around and lapping the field, he's a bit of a stalker. There's no waiting a lap and then passing a guy, or catching up to someone and then laying back and waiting for the right opportunity to go around. It's more like here I am, I know I'm faster than you, you know I'm faster than you, so get out of the way. The other thing is that when Busch has a two- or three-second lead, he doesn't just coast around there and maintain what he has. He's looking to stretch that lead to say five or six seconds. He's just doing his job, driving that car as fast as he can.

As for the Bowyer-Hamlin incident. Bowyer doesn't easily lose his cool, so it was a surprising to see him head back out and take out Hamlin. It makes you wonder if there's been some history there over the last year or two and Bowyer finally had enough. I do believe Hamlin when he says he didn't clip Bowyer intentionally on that restart that caused a major accident. So, it will be interesting to see if there's any carryover into today's Sprint Cup race. My guess is probably not.